The Colombian government announced on Saturday a “peace zone” agreed with the Frente 33 FARC dissident group, which has been engaged in fierce clashes with the National Liberation Army (ELN) since January in the northeast Catatumbo region.
President Gustavo Petro declared on X that “Catatumbo’s peace begins” with the deal, which will see the guerrillas concentrate in an area of the Tibú municipality.
But local leaders, analysts and government officials raised questions about the plan’s viability and expressed concern for the civilian population.
Saturday’s deal follows months of negotiations between government delegates and the FARC dissidents. On April 17, Petro put pressure on the group, extending a ceasefire for a month with the threat of “significant changes in strategy” if negotiations did not advance.
“This department’s government views this as a phase in the advancement of the peace process,” Luis Niño, High Peace Advisor for Norte de Santander, told The Bogotá Post in response to the “peace zone” deal.
He explained that by concentrating the Frente 33 in a specific area where they have operational, logistical and security guarantees, the government hopes negotiations can progress and lead to a permanent peace agreement.
Armando Benedetti, Colombia’s Interior Minister, said that if the group does not concentrate within the peace zone then the government will end peace negotiations.
But Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Colombia Analyst at Crisis Group, raised questions over whether the Frente 33 really wants to demobilize.
“The actions that we’ve seen on the ground in recent weeks from the 33 are very much not of a group looking to disarm or seeking an end to conflict,” Dickinson told The Bogotá Post.
She noted that the FARC dissidents have continued to reinforce their army in the zone, bringing in new soldiers and arms and targeting the local population for recruitment, including children.
“This is an armed organization that is returning to war mode,” said Dickinson.
Doubts about the group’s intentions are coupled with fears of the impact on the local population.
Tibú, where the “peace zone” will be established, has been rocked by combat in recent months.
Many fear the deal could expose Tibú’s residents to more violence.
“There is great concern for the civilian population,” Jaime Botero, President of Tibú’s Association of Communal Action Boards (ASOJUNTAS), told The Bogotá Post.
He explained that the ELN and FARC dissidents are both present in Tibú and fears that making it a “peace zone” could lead to intensified clashes between the groups.
Botero also criticized the government for not consulting community leaders in the municipality before announcing the plan.
“As of today, we have not been notified, we have not been invited [to partake in] or informed about this upcoming process,” he said.
“We are the ones who are here, on the ground, day by day and at the very least we need to be consulted… so as to avoid a possible confrontation with the ELN,” continued the community leader.
Others too have raised concerns about the viability of the plan. Niño echoed Botero’s concerns about the potential risk for the civilian population living in the “peace zone”.
Dickinson also noted that on a practical level, there are concerns among security forces about whether or not the Frente 33 will disarm within the peace zone.
“If they do remain armed, it will be very complex and indeed potentially impossible for the military to protect them,” said the analyst, explaining that such a situation would constitute an alliance between government forces and an armed group.
While residents of Catatumbo are desperate for peace, the impact of this deal for the conflict remains far from clear.
“It would be beneficial for us here – for the people – for the war to end. But, well, we will have to wait and see,” said Botero.