The latest crime data analysed by Bogotá Como Vamos shows a marked decrease in reports of robbery in the city this year but a rise in all other serious crimes. The citizen’s group went through the figures registered by the Policía Nacional in their internal database.
According to the new figures, from January to September 2024 reports of robberies dropped as much as 24% year on year while crimes including sexual assault and homicide increased in the same period. It’s important to note that this measures denuncias rather than police-assessed crime.
Many Colombians simply don’t report muggings and pickpocketing, seeing it as largely fruitless. Some mobile phone thefts will be reported in order to make insurance claims and this is often true if a cédula is lost as well.
With the capital’s new mayor, Carlos Fernando Galán, pledging to be “the mayor of security,” are the latest figures a sign that his efforts are working, or is it too soon to tell?
What exactly does the data show?
The latest figures identify a marked decrease in reports of theft from a person in 2024. The number of reports of personal robberies were 17.7% lower than during the same January to September period in 2023. Reports of residential burglaries and commercial robberies decreased by 24% and 21%, respectively.
Although reports of robbery are lower than in 2023, this year’s numbers are roughly on par with those in 2019 and higher than in the intervening years.
Also, despite the drop in theft reports, reports of all other serious crimes have increased this year. Homicide rose 8.3%, assault 19.1% and sexual crimes 58.8%. Extortion and domestic violence also rose by more than 70%.
Katherin Galindo Ortiz, Research Coordinator at Colombia Risk Analysis, a Bogotá-based security think tank, warned against making premature conclusions from this data. She agrees that the reduction in robbery cases could be the result of underreporting.
“It’s important to consider that these crime statistics rely on citizen reports, so it’s still unclear whether robberies are genuinely decreasing or if fewer are being reported,” Galindo told The Bogotá Post.
Galindo also commented that increasing reports of violent crime may be the result of a heightened willingness to report these types of incidents. Homicide can be especially hard to cover up in a large city.
Is Bogotá getting safer?
In January this year, Galán announced a strategy to improve safety in the capital, dubbed Bogotá camina segura. The plan saw commitments to increase police presence on the streets. Galindo offers a mixed view on the success of the security drive.
“I would say it’s partially effective. Decreased robbery reports may indicate success in police patrols, control, and response,” said the Colombia Risk Analysis analyst.
For now, it appears to be too soon to judge if the capital is getting safer and if Galán’s strategy is working. The busy upcoming months of the Christmas period may contribute to an uptick in crimes.
“The holiday season will test Mayor Galán’s security strategy. However, what people see in the news and on social media will likely continue to shape negative perceptions of security in the city, maintaining public demand for increased police presence, especially in retail areas.”
