Colombian president Gustavo Petro has issued a stern rebuke to his counterpart in the USA over treatment of migrants. Trump has responded by going nuclear with steep tariffs immediately applicable and visa revocations.
This morning provided the first sign of how Colombia-USA relations may look over the coming years. President Gustavo Petro tweeted that he would deny permission for flights from the USA carrying repatriated Colombian migrants. His counterpart in the USA responded with extraordinarily tough measures.
In a series of tweets, Petro said “The United States cannot treat Colombian migrants like delinquents” and that he had “denied the entrance of North American planes with Colombian migrants onto our territory.”
Two military planes with Colombian citizens on board were turned back under his instructions and denied permission to land. Petro has long been at odds with the USA over migrant issues and as Colombia’s first real leftist president is firmly pro-migration. However, he’s also given to big statements which promise much and deliver little.
In recent months, Colombian migrants have come under increasing scrutiny. The UK revoked visa-free access for Colombians at short notice in November and Germany is openly considering following suit. Both blamed a marked increase in spurious asylum claims and ex-canciller Murillo took a frustrated but understanding line on both.
New Colombian canciller Laura Sanabria is in at the deep end on this one, having only been appointed to the role this month. She has an unusually excellent relationship with Petro, who has defended her through thick and thin and appointed her to a bevy of roles in both his political machine and administration.
However, this is a tricky situation – Petro likes being involved in international relations and is more than happy to overshadow his canciller on big issues. This will test the bond between the two politicians more than anything yet has. On the UK visa situation, Murillo tried to negotiate while Petro threatened retaliatory measures.
On the other side of the table, it’s even harder to take a guess as to what precisely Trump is thinking. His campaign was heavy on rhetoric over illegal migrants but he has a tendency to say things he doesn’t follow through on. Tariffs are his new favourite thing, so he’s immediately put a 25% tariff on all Colombian imports, rising to 50% next week.
On top of that, he’s threatening to revoke official Colombian visas, frozen applications from within Colombia and called for heightened checks on Colombian nationals entering the USA. Not only will those revocations hit officials, but all “allies and supporters” of the government.
In the short term, he’s signed orders to reverse some of the Biden administration’s policies and encouraged raids by US border force ICE in his first week in the White House. This is his first chance to show if he’ll really be as tough as he talks and he’s backing up words with actions.
How will this look in reality?
While the intention of both the Trump and Petro administration is clear, the nuts and bolts of it are much more complicated. We have the first sign of Trump’s line – those tariffs will hurt fast. Petro is standing up for Latin America in general, but Colombia has a far weaker hand than some other countries and he’s much the smaller dog in this fight.
It’s not clear what dignified treatment actually means in practice. Petro hasn’t defined it, meaning he has plenty of wriggle room to allow him to climb down. That may be key – taking on this fight will cost him both economic and political capital. For the moment, Colombia’s presidential plane has been offered as an alternative to military flights.
Given that both presidents like to give rambling, grandiose monologues that lead to little being done, it’s entirely possible that this is simple chest-thumping and rhetorical appeal to their respective bases, but those tariffs are real and will hit business.
Trump can be bullish about things and has little reason to back down if he genuinely cares about this. It’s less about Colombia and more about playing to his established MAGA base. That would likely mean a slew of migrants being imprisoned in the US, where they are unlikely to receive particularly dignified treatment.
Colombia is very far down Trump’s list of priorities and he will be well aware that he holds most of the cards in this dispute. US trade with Colombia is worth far more to Bogotá than Washington and there are more Colombians there than US citizens here.
Colombia is one of the very few Latin countries that still counts the USA as its number one trading partner. However, that’s mainly in Colombia’s favour. While the country still accounts for a big proportion of oil arriving in the States, America can source it from elsewhere. Meanwhile, that oil is the base of the Colombian economy.
Then of course, there’s aid, military collaboration and an enormous number of dual nationals and Colombians sending remittances from the US. All of those people will be caught up in the middle of this battle of egos between two bombastic presidents.
An aspect of this that is perhaps more relevant to foreign residents in Colombia is that Petro has already highlighted that the number of US citizens in Colombia with irregular statuses is over 15,000. There is widespread irritation with this among Colombians, especially in Medellín, where digital nomads and others have pushed up property prices, rental and real estate. Petro says they may be deported.
This may all simply be a war of words, but what is undeniable is that at least for a few months there will be a lot of ordinary people affected by this. Whether that’s Colombian migrants being forced to undergo humiliating treatment, harrassment at airports, economic difficulties or deported US citizens, this won’t be easy for anyone.